Housing Bubble 2019

Are we in a US housing
bubble right now? You bet we are. Let’s dive into it. [MUSIC PLAYING] Hey, everybody. I’m Clayton Morris. Welcome back for another video. And today, we’re going to talk
about the US housing bubble. This channel is totally
devoted to helping you build passive income,
taking action, and becoming a real estate investor. The whole point of this
channel is to talk about buy and hold rental real estate. That’s what I do. I’ve rehabbed hundreds of homes. And that’s what I’m hoping
to help you do to take action and to build that
passive income. Now, today, let’s talk
about the economy. Occasionally, I
like to look at some of the economic
news, the real estate news that’s making headlines. And we have a whole playlist
devoted to these subjects. So all of the current
news in real estate, you can check on that and
check out that playlist below in the comment thread
or in the card above here. One of the things we’ve
been following, of course, is interest rates. And we know that the Fed
just raised interest rates for the first time– actually,
the second time– since 2008. But they’re still
at historic lows. But the real question is why? Why are we seeing those
interest rates going up? And what’s happening right now
in the construction sector? And the broader
question’s about a bubble. Now, we hear about a
real estate bubble. We’re probably
thinking about 2008. That’s the last time that
we had a big real estate bubble in the United States. What is a bubble? Well, it just means that where
prices of houses keep going up, people are unable to
basically afford those houses at a certain point. And then suddenly, crash. Construction dries up. Banks don’t lend. Foreclosures,
short sales, people lose their jobs,
economic collapse– that’s a bubble. We saw that with the tech boom. Remember the tech boom
in the early 2000s? When that happened, that
was a total disaster. You remember what
happened, right? You had all these companies
that were sort of artificially inflated on nothing. Remember Pets.com, that
ridiculous sock puppet? You had these companies
that were being inflated with all of this money,
this venture capital money, and yet no one was
buying pet food online. And no one was actually
shopping at Pets.com. So what’s happening here is
that in the housing market, what we were worried
about before, a decade ago, was people
artificially inflated prices and values,
but no one being able to pay their mortgage
because they were out of a job or they actually
shouldn’t have qualified for the mortgage
in the first place. But what’s different this time
around and why it’s less scary this time around
is that yes, we are seeing prices being driven up. But they’re being driven
up by a lack of supply. A couple of things
are occurring here– is that the home builders
aren’t building at the level that they were
building before 2008. And actually, if you’ve
seen some of the other news we’ve been following here– is that builders are actually
slowing down a little bit. And construction starts–
is what they called– are actually– they actually hit
their first break and low point in about four years. So what does that mean for
us as rental investors? I always try to look at the
news in the terms of, hey, I’m a rental investor. What does that mean
for me, not as a what does that mean for me
as John and Susie Homebuyer, because I’m going to live
in this particular property. I look at it this way. If builders aren’t building
new rental properties, they’re not building
new single-family homes, that’s great for me
because that means that there’s more opportunity
for renters to rent from me. Also, it means there’s
less homes out there. And that means the vacancy
rate won’t be so high. So I think without
that extra inventory, we see a lower vacancy rate. We see more
competition for people to rent from me,
which is exciting. So over the summer, we
saw 50 consecutive months of appreciation and growth
in the housing sector, which was great. But what that means is you’re
also seeing increased prices on homes and interest
rates at historic lows. So that means that people
wanted to get out there and try to buy a house. The problem is that there’s
just not a lot of houses and not a lot of availability. So now what happens when you
have this rate increase that we just saw last week? Well, what we can see
is we can actually see people who are less
likely to go and buy a house because now the interest
rate goes up a little bit. And they’re saying, well,
maybe we’ll just wait. Maybe we’ll wait. Maybe in a few years,
maybe we’ll buy that house. The interest rate is a
little bit higher now. And we just don’t want to buy. That could cause this bubble
to come bursting a little bit. It’s not as scary
this time, though, because it’s actually rooted
in some good economics. If I can’t afford
to buy the house, maybe I shouldn’t buy the house. In 2008, it was I can’t
afford to buy the house, but the bank is letting
me do it somehow. They’re even giving me 110%
financing to buy the house. So this time, I look
at the housing bubble as not as scary and
not as threatening. Again, so we’re seeing these
interest rate increases. But we’re also
seeing construction drying up just a little bit. And we’re seeing a
lack of inventory. That’s why we’re seeing
home prices higher. It’s just– really comes
down to supply and demand. So we here at the
channel are going to be keeping our
eye on construction. I want to see what’s going to
be happening in the construction sector. I want to see if new
apartments are being built, if new single-family homes are
being built over the next year to two years. And then we’ll
start to maybe see some moderation in those prices. But folks, I’m telling you,
for the foreseeable future, we’re doing great. We’re doing really great. And again, as a rental
investor, without new apartments being built and the types
of homes that I buy– those three-bedroom,
one-bath– we know that builders simply aren’t
even building those anyway. If they’re going to get back
and start producing again, they’re just not building
three-bedroom, one-bath houses. Why? I have a whole video on that. But I’ll explain it shorthand. It’s because millennials
aren’t buying those three-bedroom, one-bath
starter homes anymore. They’re skipping and
waiting till they’re in their 30s and 40s and
they’re buying the four- and five-bedroom houses. So builders just simply
aren’t building them. Well, guess what? People still need to rent. And there are plenty of single
moms out there, single dads out there, grandmas that want to
live in a three-bedroom house. Great. They’re going to
rent from me and you. That’s the key, right? Dig it. So that’s a look at
the US housing bubble. Yes, we are sitting in a
bit of a bubble in some of those coastal areas, like San
Francisco and Miami and Chicago and Texas and New York
and other areas like that. But again, it’s being driven
by some sound fundamental economics, which looks like it’s
tied to– that rising interest rate could slow it
down a little bit. But also, the lack of
supply of these houses– that’s why we’re seeing
this push up in prices. So there you go, folks. I’d love to hear
your take on this. You can leave some comments
in the thread below. You know that I
always answer them. And I love to answer
your questions and take a look at what you
guys are thinking about this. You can also subscribe
to the channel if you haven’t
already done that. Boom. Click the Subscribe button. And you can also click on some
different playlists over here as well. You can check out all
the stuff that we do here on the channel on
a regular basis. The goal, once again– we want you to go out there,
take action, and become a real estate investor. Everyone, we’ll
see you next time.

96 thoughts on “Housing Bubble 2019

  • These videos are very informative. I own 1 rental properties and I'm confident I need to buy more after watching your videos. Thank you!

  • Thanks!
    Should i buy ONLY 3 bedrooms? 2 baths?

    Also please…is county buying better than in the city limits most time for rentals? Whats the trend pls?

  • Santa Rosa is fuckin horrible right now. 500k for a starter? jeebus. I can't even get the VA to approve a damn house I actually have the money for.

  • The take away is real estate speculators should feel good knowing we are in a perfectly sound real estate bubble…😒

  • You sound like a realtor "Everything's fine. Don't , don't look at the details. Now's a WONDERFUL time to buy"
    You failed to mention the changing demographics, amongst other significant information. And THERE IS a glut of over built apartments rentals.

  • right, although prices have past the 07 "mania" mark, the temperature is quite different… mainly bc joe homeowner is gone. that said, if we were to have an economic down turn (led by other factors), the housing market will suffer and this time it will be RE investors holding the bag. no blaming banks or gov subs. the retail emotion will be gone and this time the banks will win. be safe y'all.

  • nothing is rooted in good economics where rates are almost ZERO% for almost a decade… Rates will force up … FED is done… When rates raise most people who qualified previously will not quality for the loans… When rates go up all other debt like student debt, auto loans,credit card, personal loans will also become expensive… many people will be out of job…

    2007-2008 was only a trailer of the real horror movie… The real bubble is the Debt bubble that is bound to explode….

  • This video is very informative thank u .
    PS higher interest rate will not effect the houses market because it will be claimed by the end of the year as tax return ?? As far as I know !! What do u think ?

  • rising rates will lower affordability. but right now affordability is in a safe range and lenders have been very conservative. doesnt look like a bubble yet. but builders are starting to pick up production because inventory of existing homes is so low. rising rates may also get people off the fence and buy a house.

  • YOU ARE SO WRONG! Low interest rates = cheap money = speculators. People as young as 25 owning 3 properties!

    Morris Invest, it is scary! You think that the population has outgrown production of houses? The same story has been touted worldwide. They say the same thing in New Zealand (where I live), Australia, England, Ireland and you're totally wrong.

    There's not a lack of houses, there's a lack of supply for speculators! We have 33,000 Ghost Homes (unoccupied houses, that are being flipped) in Auckland City alone! Houses are being sold (site unseen) in in one day for $81,000. The house prices are 10x the national salary average. It's gone beyond scary and is now a nightmare!

  • People who borrow money at interest are the enemy. Savers are responsible people; debtors and banks steal from responsible savers (and debtors) by promoting inflation and lowering everyone's purchasing power. Mortgages ought be illegal.

  • What will save this bubble when it starts to turn? We can't exactly lower interest rates to save underwater buyers as we have done in previous bubbles.

  • We have a shrinking middle class, young people are not buying homes until well into their 30s, and we're at a demographic cliff. For the first time in American history the generation that is aging/dying is larger than the one preceding them. Baby Boomers numbered 76 mil, Gen Xers are only 55mil. That means as the Boomers die and their home begin to flood the market, there won't be enough demand for them and prices will be driven down. Couple that will the foreclosures being held on bank balance sheets and we have a real problem. Expect prices to decrease steadily for 10 years before the millennials (66 mil) start picking up the slack. As an investor that's great news though. Sell what you can now and let the market find a bottom before you buy again. Ride the next trend up.

  • Rent > wages. Household formation is being determined by multiple wage earners per square foot. You don't see one family per house anymore. It's boomerang kids, 3 families per household pooling funds to rent or mortgage. That's when you know the real estate disconnect is in full swing. Real estate speculators have exploited many loopholes and politicians have once again sold the people out. There is no free market. Too BIG (politically connected) to FAIL. Too politically connected to JAIL. A correction 30 years in the making is coming due. I hope real estate speculators take it in the ass. Canada just fired the first shot, a 15% hike on foreign real estate speculators flooding the real estate market pricing out the locals. This is happening in major metros and in multiple countries. The collapse will dwarf 2008 when the markets attempted to normalize, but the Obama administration swiped the tax payer credit card and flooded the market with cheap credit, but only for the rich. Hangover time!

  • There's a huge wave glut of too many luxury condos/single family homes being built just watch what will happen when rates goOver 5% buyers, esp 1st timeBuyers won't get greenlit for their mortgages. incomes have been stagnant for a decade and a 50% appreciation in the hottest/overheated markets Seattle Portland San Fran LA Denver Austin DC Dallas Miami is not sustainable and will fall fast. Nobody is gobbling up these high end baby boomer residences that now 10k are hitting 65 daily. All of those foreclosure properties bought up by Blackstone and rich investors are being rented into perpetuity with now desire to sell

  • Millennials are skipping starter homes because investors drove their price up to the point where a 5+ bed 3+ bath home is only 20%-30% more than a 3 bed 2 bath home. Right now I am looking at listings for a 3 bed 2 bath, 1800 sqft home for $220k and a 4 bed 3 bath, 2800 sqft home for $260k. They are on the SAME BLOCK and both have pending offers. The difference? Rent caps around $2000 for a nice house and $260k is juuuuust over the profit margin for an investor here.

    Landlords buying single family homes to rent out are causing this bubble, when rental prices start dropping the housing market is going to crash hard as every landlord tries to unload their starter houses at the same time. It will even be self feeding, as the more starter houses that sell the less renters there will be and the lower rent will have to get to match.

  • The banks are holding thousands of houses off the market, and many unoccupied. Anything you by now will be inflated in price, due to the banks living on their bailout money.

  • I appreciate all the good 411.
    I'm one of those that lost my home in 2008.
    Waiting for the Homes to drop …
    I'm at Southern California.
    My question to you is do you think they homes will drop or at least stabilise?

  • Why builders aren't building more houses? If the demand is so much higher than the current supply, why not more construction companies expand their business?

  • whats your return rate. …..purchase price ÷ monthly income.??? as in 100000 property rented at 1200$ month..

  • a lot of millenials are interested in 3 bedroom homes it just that developers keep building homes that start at $450k.A lot want starter homes….but the developers are not building them because the profit margin is too small. Im stuck paying rent because all of the homes within my budget of $200k keep getting snatched up.

  • No one can afford houses because investors buy, supply drys up, and the prices go up. This may not apply to all, but those with money to buy extra houses are those that usually inherited it in order to start such an endeavor. Its like they want to create income so they don't have to have a job. Its like they are just a parasite to society. If I wanted to rent, I would get an apartment close to amenities, where I don't have to mow a yard. Unfortunately lots of people rent because sometimes that is all that is available, and secondly because prices are so high, or because of bad credit, or not much income to begin with.

  • Where I live. There are too many buildings popping up out of no where. And jobs are in demand, where people can be making a lot of money. And at the same time, the house prices are shooting up by 30%. What's going on with that? I assume population boom where people are moving but other than that I am clueless.

  • I live in Sonoma county where prices are high
    There's a lot of building going on
    My girlfriend is thinking about renting her house out
    I would keep my rental in Arizona
    I can refinance my rental and pull the equity out and we can look into buying a 3rd home together
    Any thoughts on how to proceed on this or any other ideas?
    I would have to give my mom half the equity which is about 30,000 on the rental which I owned with my dad who has since passed
    That would leave me with 30,000 and other monies I have saved
    My girlfriend and I have a combined income of 130,000 a year

  • I'm looking into becoming a first time home buyer. We've already been out bid on 3 homes with everyone willing to pay thousands above appraisal which kicked us out of the running. Unfortunately I'm working with a VA loan so I'm not allowed to really compete without bringing thousands more to the table. I see it coming, these people are going to end up eating their mortgages. Now is a great time to sell your home but those of you buying way over appraisal, good luck. See you in foreclosure.

  • Great video. I have a questions for you, do you believe that this is a good time to do a cash out refi whle home price are high? Your insight is greatly appreciated.

  • What do you think about investing through roofstock? I'm looking to invest on my first investment home.

  • Finally someone here that's deciding to tell the truth, however there's more to it than what's talked about in this video that "Morris" isn't sharing & that is since 2008's economic crash. America has NEVER recovered from from it, Period. All the government did was throw a 700 billion dollar "stimulus" at the deficit which in that almost everyone received a "bonus" check right along with their tax returns in 09' during Obama's reign in office. Which gave people some extra cash, but for most it went to saving or paying off some previous debt. It surely wasn't used to be fun spending money, for most anyway.

    Once it was seen that, that didn't work well then war with the middle east intensified, a bailout was needed to be made for big financial institutions like JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, etc. in the government continuing to print more money out of thin air thus raising taxes on the middle class & poor in creating a bigger financial debt that we now see today. All I can say is this ISN'T going to end well concerning the real estate crisis.

    You've got a majority of people, younger people at that that have college degrees or are finishing up school with MASSIVE DEBTS & are working 2 to maybe 3 entry service level jobs just to make ends meet let alone have a place that's not shared with 2 to 3 people in affordable living. Sure it's "great" & things seem to be doing well if this doesn't directly affect you "Morris" but just wait, cause what's coming is gonna make the 08' crash feel like a well lubed hand job. (>_<)

  • I'm a little surprised I haven't seen more people moving to Vallejo or Crockett. You can still get a really nice 3Bed – 2Bath in a good area for under $380K. A carpool or Ferry ride to San Francisco. Walnut Creek, Concord, and everything Between Dublin not too rough a commute. May be due too poor schools. If you don't have kids this hold the key to your Real Estate investing needs. What do you think?

  • Thank u v much for the info, what do u think the best time to buy a home in San Francisco in specific and California in general

  • I am looking to purchase a home but I think I should wait. I went to see a home yesterday selling for $117,000 in SW Florida. I checked things out and this house sold for $63,000 in 2015. That is nuts that they are asking almost twice as much as they paid just a few years ago. This is typical right now.

  • human beings are pathetic open your eyes do some math 21.00 to 23.00 per square foot builds a house all day long
    it's been that way for 30 years wake up

  • If the economy tanks, rent will probably drop like it did in every other recession. As long as landlords can absorb the decrease they should be ok. The ones that are over-levered will probably lose everything. Also, when interest rates rise, other investments become more profitable than real estate. That could also cause problems for the housing market if there is a large outflow of money. But there are so many variables, no one knows how it's really going to play out but people should be prepared for the worst.

  • The whole point of this channel is to make money for yourself. So many doctors but without an idea of what the problem is.

  • They won't rent if they can't afford the rent. The low inventory is driving rent so high that its creating a housing crisis resulting in an increase in homelessness. Another problem that will have to be resolved. Look at what's happening in the San Francisco bay area and Sacramento, CA for example.

  • Can't find shit for my max of 600K. Constantly being out bid by people with cash money. Homes start off at my max to end up selling for 90 K over asking. Beginning to think I should buy out of state and lease it. No way I will be able to live in my own in Los Angeles.

  • Hi Morris,I live in Houston. what's your opinion on single apartment or condo? We can get 2B/2B apartment for under 100k. Do you think that's a good idea for rental property? Single family here below 150k and in acceptable neighborhood are hard to find. And rent is hard to pass $1500

  • I used to live in Beijing, the house price take off from $1000/square meter to $12000/square meter in ten years and still rising. I don't worry about the price here in states.

  • idk if i can agree im in philly and the construction of single family homes been rising and commercial property. people are still loosing there homes foreclose so there is alot of tax delinquent and tax deed sales. so there is alot property for sale.

  • warren buffett is full of crap. he is marketing mouth of wall st. i dont trust him. market is rigged to benefit the big players.

  • I (and the Bank) have 4-Rentals in Elk Grove.
    The Rents are getting driven up and they fill extremely quickly.
    I can see being into them for a long time!

  • Shitty fact, with student loans…you can't just walk away. What asset is there to back the student loan debt? My clothes in my closet and my wages? Such a stupid type of debt that millions of people are stuck with right now, who are trying to be the future home buyers and shape the future of the country.

  • Hi Clayton,
    Seen en enjoyed many of your tutorials. I'm from Amsterdam (The Netherlands) doing Real Estate, Member of BiggerPockets. Things are slightly different here (eg HOA and foreclosusers, etc) prices are lower, but want to discuss/ Profits in here are 30% plus. [email protected]

  • The Housing Bubble is still Alive and Worst now,  Scarier than ever..Its Completely Ridiculous ..   A 1500 sq foot Ranch on 1/3 Acre Lot for over a Quarter Million dollars?.., Its not worth more than 125 Thousand!!….Go to the Devil!

  • Great analysis! One thing to think about and look at is that as investors, we always look at ROI and if a property pencils right and the numbers are good, then you have value in that property. And we can always ride the lows unless we are heavily leveraged. Further, in a market that you are in, if you can still find those values, then you shouldn’t be too worried about the market decline, because it would most likely create better ROIs on your future investments.

  • We bought a 3bd 1ba house with a garage with a loft. We are currently finishing off the garage as a rental and then will rent out the house also. We bought the property for $141k. The neighbor just rented their property for $1160 a month. It’s nearly identical to our house. With no garage. So I’m hoping to get that or $1000 from the house and have a higher end efficiency for the garage and rent it out for $800 with electric and water included in the garage apartment. (We are putting solar on the garage). If this all works out then we will be looking for a similar property. In our area the housing prices are high however I’ve found that places that have a second building that can be used for a rental aren’t priced any higher.

  • Most people I encounter never care or even know what interest rates are. Buying or not buying a house is usually based on price tag. Investors who understand cash flow care about interest rates.

  • Spot on. The market is slowing. Which will slow home buying. It will also slow down builders from building creating an even worse supply crunch. This will push people to rent homes and great news for landlords. If your trying to buy a home right now offer 10 to 15 % less than what its worth. People will start getting nervous and they will sell

  • Wait a minute construction does not slow because of a lack of inventory, They slow due to Profits not high enough due to interest rates or an over supply of homes. not a lack of inventory. if their is lack of inventory they are going to build, to get their hands on some of that money. One of the things you have to ask yourself is what is the cost of the land and how much of that is going to cut into the builders profit.

  • Realtors and any business people that are becoming rich selling a lot of houses are the ones who don’t wanna admitting that the housing bubble is about to burst, houses now are more expensive then they were back in 2007, this time the bubble burst will be a little bit different , there is not predatory lending but there is a lot of buyers that barely qualified to buy a house and will barely make the monthly payments, on the first emergency they wouldn’t be able to make payments, we have housing war bidding almost in every city, that mean to many buyers, investors, foreign and out of state buyers and flippers pushing prices up and willing to buy any house that appear on the market on the first day, by next year we will have thousands of people that are buying right now houses that range $150,000 to 600,000 prices, falling behind theirs mortgages payments because either they got sick or they lose their jobs or simple they couldn’t make it to the end off the month,,,,,,,, sorry for my English

  • Bubble. I was thinking that… But nope not til 2025 when Trump leaves office.. A lot of money made on bitcoin oil stock 401k… Its going be heloc and affordable housing

  • This bubble doesn’t apply to the rental game. If your cash flow positive, 15% or more, than I’m buying all day long

  • Ah, I like starting with a duplexes & then diversifying from there Clayton, but I still think a person has to run the numbers aways. Interesting video Clayton! Always run the numbers!

  • It seems like every year they predict the housing market to crash and nothing happens. Im reading these comments and watching these channels predicting the end of the world

  • Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Vancouver, Toronto developers are all about micro apartments (sub 400sqft). Single Family home construction is dead. High tech smart micro leasing/buying is super hot 🔥.

    The reason?

    Over 50% of the population are single occupiers. Since the last recession developers caught on to this and are hiring lobbyists to petitioning city officials to change zoning and construction requirements to allow spaces as small as 250 sq ft and even bypass car parking garages.

    How can they do this?
    Well apartments are being built near metro stops with high penetration of Uber type services, peer to peer auto rentals, e-scooters & bicycles. The future urban landscape is changing fast and its being driven by millennial demand.

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